The claim that Donald Trump’s near-death experience in Pennsylvania is a sign of divine intervention is not the only far-fetched notion emerging from the Republican Convention. It is also difficult to swallow the idea that the choice of J.D. Vance as Trump’s running mate is an indication that the GOP is embracing pro-worker populism.
Vance is one of a group of younger Republican senators who are seeking to address one of the key contradictions of the MAGA movement. Trump has done a good job tapping into the anger of working class voters, but he has used it mainly to stoke resentment against immigrants and cultural elites. He has offered little in the way of proposals that would improve the lot of communities still suffering the effects of economic dislocation.
In his 2016 campaign, Trump promoted the idea he would revive the coal industry. That excited many voters in states such as West Virginia, but it was a false promise. Coal continued to decline. Now Trump is relying on gimmicks such as eliminating payroll taxes on tips received by hospitality workers while pushing widespread tariffs that could seriously backfire. At the same time, he brought about a Republican platform containing tax and regulatory policies that are anything but populist.
Vance and his group are smart enough to realize that those workers flocking to the Republican Party may not be satisfied with cultural populism alone. They are thus willing to flirt with ideas that are antithetical to long-standing GOP orthodoxy.
They seem to be more receptive toward labor unions—a stance that got a boost after the Teamsters president agreed to speak at the convention. They have a more positive view of antitrust enforcement, at least when it comes to Big Tech. In the past, Vance has expressed support for increasing the minimum wage and raising taxes on corporations.
There is no indication that any of these ideas are going to be adopted by Donald Trump, who continues to espouse the corporate agenda on most issues. He clings to the business-friendly claims that regulation harms the economy and that low business taxes are the key to prosperity. He vilifies unions and environmental groups. A second Trump Administration would likely pander to corporate interests the way the first one did.
While many CEOs are still wary of endorsing Trump and his social agenda, some are moving into his camp. Most notable is Elon Musk, who has committed to spending tens of millions of dollars to support the Republican ticket. Other major figures in Silicon Valley are also jumping on the Trump bandwagon.
It is unclear whether Trump’s selective populism will continue to satisfy his supporters, but for now he seems to be riding high. As for Vance, it is more likely that Trump will change his views rather than the other way around. After all, this is the same Vance who once denounced Trump and now worships him. I am betting he will have a similar conversion when it comes to economic policy.