A new article in a prestigious scientific journal puts a price tag on the damage fossil fuel companies have done to the earth’s climate through their greenhouse gas emissions. Christopher Callahan and Justin Mankin, writing in Nature, estimate that major petroleum and coal producers have inflicted trillions of dollars in economic harm on the world economy over the decades by helping to generate disasters such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, hurricanes, and wildfires. In the period from 1991 to 2020, they put the total value of that harm at $28 trillion.
They derive their totals by analyzing data on the emissions of 111 fossil fuel producers. About one-third of the harm is attributed to five companies: Saudi Aramco ($2.05 trillion), Gazprom ($2 trillion), Chevron ($1.98 trillion), ExxonMobil ($1.91 trillion), and BP ($1.45 trillion).
Callahan and Mankin are explicit in arguing that their data could be useful in bringing legal actions against the fossil fuel industry. They point out that hundreds of climate lawsuits have been filed but few have succeeded so far.
They foresee greater success in suits that seek to hold specific corporations culpable for specific climate effects. They argue that research advances are making it easier to make those connections and do so themselves in linking the emissions of those 111 fossil fuel producers to extreme heat and resulting economic costs.
Drawing these connections is vital because, among other things, regulatory systems have largely failed both in preventing excessive emissions and in holding corporations accountable for their effects. This is illustrated in the data my colleagues and I have collected from 60 countries in Violation Tracker Global.
In the period since 2010, the 74 oil and gas companies we cover have paid about $41 billion in fines and settlements. Very little of those penalties relate directly to greenhouse gas emissions. BP accounts for the lion’s share of the total at nearly $27 billion, largely in connection with the Deepwater Horizon explosion and spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.
Among the other corporations in Callahan and Mankin’s top five, the largest penalty total belongs to Exxon Mobil at just over $1 billion. The other totals are: Saudi Aramco ($103 million), Gazprom ($106 million), and Chevron ($587 million). The grand total for the five oil giants is about $29 billion.
Given regulatory disclosure limitations in some countries, these totals may be somewhat understated. Yet they do not begin to compare to the magnitude of the economic harms attributed to the corporations by Callahan and Mankin, which for the period since 2010 can be put at roughly $10 trillion.
This means that the five oil giants have paid penalties equal to less than 1 percent of the climate harm they have caused—and those penalties in most cases do not address the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for those harms.
It thus remains highly profitable for fossil fuel producers to continue with business as usual. Hopefully, the new approaches promoted by researchers such as Callahan and Mankin will tip the balance in the other direction by empowering legal challenges to the industry.